Wellingborough proves you don't have to look hard to find broad disillusionment with politics
The stunning Labour swing in the by-election shows the party has become a receptacle for some voter disenchantment over the cost of living, the state of high street and the NHS.
Friday 16 February 2024 19:36, UK
As far as character assessments go, it's a particularly brutal one.
"If ever you want to give Northamptonshire an enema, Wellingborough is where you put the tube."
I repeat this contribution from one Wellingborough voter not to mock the now Labour-held town, but to highlight a certain sense of disillusionment on show among people out in the market square on the morning after the by-election before.
A similar sentiment expressed in a less lewd way came from a retired nurse who's lived in the area for thirty years.
"The country is in a bad way and Wellingborough itself is looking really, really shabby and you almost feel ashamed to see the way it's gone down", she said.
Her husband added he was a long-time Tory voter but didn't support the party this time because "it's a waste of time".
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It didn't take long to find another gloomy ex-Conservative who turned out for Labour in this by-election.
The last time his vote went somewhere other than the blue box was to try and kick out Margaret Thatcher.
As for what is motivating this, migration concerns mirror those in other rural and provincial areas that have seen swingeing anti-Tory results in recent years.
Namely - the cost of living, the state of the high street, the closure of banks and other services, anti-social behaviour, potholes, dentists and the NHS.
The stunning Labour swing overnight shows the party has become a receptacle for at least some of this disenchantment.
And it also suggests the woes of the last two weeks - be it the £28bn debacle or the scandal over comments made by the party's candidate in Rochdale - haven't really disrupted the broader direction of travel.
But it still didn't feel like there was much enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer on the Northamptonshire streets.
Mentions of his name were met by eye rolls, sceptical grunts and accusations of being "wishy washy".
If the Wellingborough by-election was a revolt, it seems like it was one motivated more by apathy than by anger.
Tory high command had already been clear it was committing few resources to the contest in Northamptonshire or the parallel one in Kingswood.
"These seats are going to be contested again in a few months, is £100k a piece a good use of funds in a general election year?", said one party source.
Officials say the scandal over ex-MP Peter Bone and his sexual misconduct and bullying case was a drag on the vote in Wellingborough too.
Something no doubt exaggerated by the party's candidate for this by-election being - somewhat curiously - Mr Bone's current partner.
The best mitigation the government can credibly point to is the low turnout and the hypothesis - or perhaps more accurately, hope - that Tory voters are simply sitting on their hands until the general election.
But if the bleed of voters on the left flank wasn't enough, there's also now an emerging challenge from the right.
Reform UK chalked up two of their best results overnight, taking a sizeable slice of the vote in both constituencies.
None of this may be enough to win seats come the general election, but in Tory/Labour marginals, the party could still split the right-wing vote and deny the Conservatives several wins.
So how can this staunchly pro-Brexit and anti-mass migration party justify potentially helping put a Labour prime minister into Downing Street?
Outside the Hind Hotel in Wellingborough, the party's deputy leader and candidate for the town lashes out at the premise of the question.
"The implication is that parties like Reform UK almost shouldn't exist, we're just disturbing the status quo, we're taking votes off the Conservative Party as if they're entitled to have them - they're not", said Ben Habib.
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After seizing 13% of the vote, that insurgent spirit is clearly finding some sympathy.
In a nearby pub, one man propping up the bar puts his own twist on Reform's outsider mantra.
"The Tories and Labour are two wings on the same bird, why not just shoot the bird?" he said.
You don't have to look hard to find this sense of broad disillusionment with politics in many areas across the country.
What electoral voice it finds come the general election will determine who gets to run the country when polling day has passed.