Which MPs could make - or break - the PM's Brexit deal?
Boris Johnson needs Labour MPs prepared to defy Jeremy Corbyn, Tories he sacked or independents to help him "get Brexit done".
Friday 18 October 2019 19:44, UK
The House of Commons will on Saturday vote on the prime minister's Brexit deal - with the result expected to come down to fine margins.
Boris Johnson needs about 320 MPs to support his deal in order for it to be approved, assuming no one abstains, but there are only 287 voting Conservative MPs.
It means he needs to pick up more than 30 votes from other parts of the Commons in order to be successful.
So, where could those votes come from?
- Labour MPs who want a Brexit deal
There are a number of Labour MPs who represent Leave-supporting areas who have previously said they would vote for a Brexit deal.
A total of five Labour MPs supported Theresa May's Brexit deal on its third vote in the House of Commons.
These were Sir Kevin Barron, Rosie Cooper, Jim Fitzpatrick, Caroline Flint and John Mann.
But Mr Johnson will be hoping to pick up more support from the Labour benches for his deal.
Sarah Champion and Ronnie Campbell are poised to back his agreement, while Ruth Smeeth and Gareth Snell are among those Labour MPs who have previously said they want to support a deal.
Earlier this month, a total of 19 Labour MPs - including Ms Flint, Ms Champion, Sir Kevin, Mr Fitzpatrick, Mrs Smeeth and Mr Snell - wrote to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to urge the EU to strike a new Brexit deal with the prime minister.
However, it is not guaranteed all of that number will now support Mr Johnson's agreement.
- Former Tory MPs
In September, the prime minister withdrew the whip from 21 Conservative MPs - effectively expelling them from the party - for voting against him on Brexit.
It has been suggested they could be given a way back into the party if they now support Mr Johnson's deal, as Number 10 scrambles to gain their backing for the Brexit agreement.
Former ministers Richard Benyon and Alistair Burt have already said they will vote in favour of the prime minister's deal.
But, others in the group, such as Sir Oliver Letwin, Philip Hammond and David Gauke, are instead spearheading a proposal for MPs to withhold their approval for Mr Johnson's agreement until all the subsequent legislation needed to implement the deal is passed.
Fellow former Tory MP Ed Vaizey said: "We have to pass the legislation and nobody wants to be in a position where the legislation somehow fails and we crash out of the EU.
"I've always tried to stop a no-deal Brexit."
Their plan comes in the form of an amendment to Mr Johnson's deal, tabled by Sir Oliver, and - if it passes - will see the prime minister have to comply with existing legislation compelling him to seek a three-month Brexit delay from the EU.
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Although it won't be enough for him to escape the requirement to seek a further Brexit delay, the passage of Sir Oliver's amendment could be viewed as support for Mr Johnson's deal in principle.
This would allow him to push ahead with implementing his deal in law - through the Withdrawal Agreement Bill - in the knowledge that there is enough support in parliament for it.
- Independent MPs
A number of MPs who no longer represent a particular party in the Commons could back Mr Johnson's agreement.
Former Tory MPs Nick Boles and Charlie Elphicke are likely to support his deal, while ex-Labour MPs Ian Austin, John Woodcock, Kelvin Hopkins and Frank Field could also vote in favour.
But… could Tory Brexiteers still scupper the PM's hopes?
The group of 28 so-called Tory Brexit "Spartans" are those Conservative Brexiteers who voted against Theresa May's deal three times.
Many of them - including those who are now in Mr Johnson's government - will back the new Brexit deal.
However, it is far from guaranteed all 28 will turn out in support of the prime minister. Could that be enough to dash the PM's hopes of passing his deal?