Why are Iran and Pakistan firing rockets at each other?
After a deadly tit-for-tat exchange across the border left 11 people dead, including six children, Sky News looks into what's going on between Iran and Pakistan.
Friday 19 January 2024 09:39, UK
A deadly tit-for-tat exchange across the border separating Iran and Pakistan has left at least 11 people dead, including six children.
In a time of high tension in the region, with conflicts erupting on multiple fronts, the explosive confrontation has stoked fears of a wider war between the two neighbours.
But how likely is that to happen?
Sky News spoke to two experts about what's going on between Iran and Pakistan, and what it means going forward.
Did Pakistan fire rockets across the border into Iran?
Yes. Pakistan says it used rockets and drones to strike separatist Baloch militants inside Iran on Thursday.
Iranian media said several missiles hit a village in the Sistan Baluchistan province bordering Pakistan, with four children among the dead.
Pakistan says "a number of terrorists" were killed during the operation, which was "highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts".
It said the targets were used by the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) and the Baloch Liberation Army.
The BLF is waging an armed insurgency against the Pakistani state, including attacks against Chinese citizens and investments in Balochistan, a region that spans across the border with Iran.
What about the Iranian strike on targets inside Pakistan?
Thursday's strike was in retaliation, Pakistan says, after Iranian forces attacked the bases of another group inside Pakistani territory earlier this week.
On Tuesday, Iran targeted Jaish al Adl, or the Army of Justice, an outlawed Sunni Muslim separatist group, which is anti-Iranian and seeks independence for Iran's eastern Sistan and Pakistan's southwestern Baluchistan provinces, making it a common target for both governments.
"I think very likely the Pakistanis didn't expect it because Iran is pretty involved elsewhere in the region," Baraa Shiban, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) defence thinktank, said.
Pakistan said civilians were hit and two children killed, warning of consequences for which Tehran would be responsible.
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Iran believes Jaish al Adl is responsible for the deadly attack in Kerman, Iran, earlier this month that killed more than 95 people.
At the time of the explosions, a ceremony was being held in the city to mark the 2020 assassination of Iran's top commander Qassem Soleimani.
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Could the situation escalate further?
Professor Anoush Ehteshami, an expert in international relations at Durham University, says the exchange of fire between the two countries is a "major, major escalation".
He said Iran's government had been under pressure to respond to the attack on the Soleimani memorial and this amounted to a "show of force".
Pakistan, which retaliated with strikes of its own, will "want to hold a line on this one", Professor Ehteshami added.
But he said he expects both parties will also want to de-escalate.
Mr Shiban from RUSI agreed, adding that historically the two countries have had an understanding of de-escalation.
"The two sides do not trust each other but they do have an understanding with each other," he said.
Asked what would happen going forward, he added: "It's hard to predict, I don't think it's in the interests of each one of them to go into a conflict."