Why Donald Trump needs a sweet victory in Florida
For Clinton, victory in Florida would be the icing on the cake - but Trump must win to stand a real chance of becoming president.
Monday 7 November 2016 03:50, UK
In the crucial swing state of Florida, where frequent polls show the race is neck and neck, our Sky News research was the least scientific, but the tastiest way to test public opinion.
We commissioned a cake. It was vivid blue and red, split down the middle - just like Florida - with the names Trump and Clinton spelled out in icing to the left and right. And we offered voters the chance to choose a slice.
Hillary Clinton may not need to win Florida. Her support in other swing states means she could afford to lose the Sunshine State and still win the White House.
But it's virtually impossible for her Republican rival to lose Florida and still become President. For Clinton, Florida would be the icing on her cake. For Trump it's an essential ingredient.
We took our cake to a retirement community just outside Tampa. Sun City has 11,000 residents drawn from around the country. Retirees flock south from the cold northern winter bringing a range of backgrounds and political views.
Donald Trump might expect to have a slight advantage among older, white voters and so it proved.
One man helped himself to a slice of Trump and told me it was because he was "a successful businessman who wasn't a liar".
One of his friends opted for a piece of Clinton because Trump "is an idiot" and couldn't understand how anyone could vote for him.
One woman chose Hillary because of how Trump had treated women, while another said she'd like a woman in the White House - but not Mrs Clinton.
Like voters in some countries who have to dip their fingers in ink to show they have voted, the stains betrayed our seniors' electoral choices.
Red and blue dye stayed on their lips. In the end, the result of the bake off was rigged when an over enthusiastic Trump supporter took the knife and started serving up slices of Trump whether voters wanted him or not.
It was all a bit of fun, to get people talking. But for the man who made the cake for us, this election has been no laughing matter.
Baker Michael Baugh had an extreme reaction to a polarising contest.
"Trump would have us all in death camps. He is one step over or under Hitler.
It's a scary election to me. He would have my people, gay people, put under."
His response was unexpected, and with no basis in truth. But it was a sign of how scared some people have become at the rhetoric of the campaign trial.
This election is anything but predictable. While Barack Obama tries to persuade African American voters to turn out to vote, I found a black voter who had turned up at an early polling station to cast her ballot for Donald Trump.
Candace Donaldson told Sky News: "I wish the black community would keep it real. It's really time to wake up.
"It's really time to get a change. I don't know why they say Donald is prejudiced. He is not prejudiced at all."
She was voting in Hillsborough County, which incorporates most of the city of Tampa, and which is one of the most reliable indicators of how the country as a whole will vote.
Only once since 1960 have voters here failed to back the winning candidate, and in 2012 they helped President Obama to a narrow victory over Mitt Romney.
So why has Donald Trump proved so popular in an area like this? According to Adam Smith, the political editor of the Tampa Bay Times, it's because so many people are so disgusted with politics, and "Donald Trump is the ultimate middle-finger to Washington."
If Trump becomes President, Smith forecasts a "phenomenal time for the news business. There will never be a dull day covering our government."
:: Sky News will bring you every twist and turn of the US election results - and we're the only UK news organisation which will bring you details of the official exit poll. Our special coverage starts on Tuesday at 10pm.
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