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Analysis

Why Downing Street is desperate to chalk up progress on migrant issue this month

The Illegal Migration Bill is the cornerstone of Rishi Sunak's key pledge to stop the small boat crossings. But so far that promise has been looking increasingly fantastical.

A group of people thought to be migrants are brought in to Dungeness, Kent
Image: A group of people thought to be migrants are brought in to Dungeness, Kent
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The government's controversial Illegal Migration Bill is back before MPs today - and after a storm of opposition in the House of Lords, Downing Street has made a series of 11th-hour concessions in a bid to get the new legislation passed before the summer recess.

The bill is the cornerstone of Rishi Sunak's key pledge to stop the small boat crossings.

But so far that promise has been looking increasingly unattainable - particularly following a recent surge in arrivals that means the total number is now only 4% lower than this time last year.

Politics latest: Government caves over controversial bill

As former home secretary Priti Patel pointed out at the weekend: "Stopping the boats is much harder than the government thought it would be."

The flagship Rwanda policy is still thoroughly grounded, set for another legal battle in the Supreme Court.

The idea of the new legislation is to create a broad deterrent effect: by banning people from claiming asylum in the UK if they arrive here illegally and putting a legal duty on the home secretary to remove them.

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But the bill faced a record series of defeats in the Lords - and today MPs were due to vote on the catalogue of changes put forward by peers, with the prospect of an extended period of so-called ping-pong between the two Houses until both are in agreement.

Having staked so much political capital on the migration issue, Downing Street is frankly desperate to chalk up some kind of tangible progress before the summer break - and the triple by-elections due on 20 July.

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Government caves into series of key amendments

On Monday afternoon, the government suddenly announced it would be caving into a series of key amendments, with Home Secretary Suella Braverman explaining the idea is to help the bill "pass through parliament swiftly".

It has introduced what are being described as "further safeguards" to protect unaccompanied children in detention - so immigration bail can be granted after eight days instead of the proposed 28 days.

Planned changes to the rules around pregnant women will also be scrapped, so they can only be detained for a maximum of 72 hours (although a minister can extend that to seven days).

Another key U-turn is over plans to retrospectively apply the law to remove those migrants who arrived since the bill was introduced in March - now this will only come into force once the bill receives royal assent.

These changes by no means incorporate all of the Lords' amendments - which also include reinstating the right of appeal against age assessments for migrants claiming to be children, and putting a legal duty on ministers to create safe and legal routes to the UK for refugees.

But by showing a willingness to listen to some of their concerns, Downing Street will be hoping it has done enough to face down the other amendments and see the bill through before the end of term.

But with the parliamentary clock ticking, and such a lack of progress towards the prime minister's other key pledges on the economy and the NHS - will rebels seize their moment to push for more?