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Analysis

Why tensions in Sudan could escalate into 'all-out civil war'

Behind Saturday's violent clashes in Sudan lies years of tension between the army and paramilitary that threatens to destabilise the country.

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What's going on in Sudan?
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Violence has erupted in Sudan's capital Khartoum, with at least聽three civilians reportedly killed in clashes between Sudan's army and paramilitary forces.

Tensions between the two sides have been long growing, but they escalated in recent days as paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) revived its presence in Khartoum and mobilised in Merowe, in the north of the country.

Yassir Abdullah, managing editor of the Al-Sudani newspaper, warned the country was heading for "all-out civil war".

"This is deeply serious," he said.

"If there is no intervention from armed forces leadership to stop the fighting, we are headed to an all-out civil war.

"This is a threat to the stability of the country as a whole. There are no winners here."

Smoke rises in Omdurman, near Halfaya Bridge, during clashes between the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army as seen from Khartoum North, Sudan April 15, 2023. REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah

Isma'il Kushkush, an independent journalist in Khartoum, told Sky News the conflict was a "worst case scenario" - particularly if, as many fear, it signalled the start of a civil war.

He said most people had heeded the warnings to stay inside as the sound of heavy gunfire dominated the city.

"There's no one on the streets," he said.

He said "tension had been boiling" in Sudan and had grown in the last few days, particularly in the north of the country.

"We're seeing this materialising today in the capital," he added.

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'Tension had been boiling' in Sudan

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Why tensions have escalated

The RSF and Sudan's army forged a partnership during the 2019 revolution to oust long-time dictator Omar al Bashir and share power during the transitional period that followed.

The pact was consolidated by a coup in October 2021 that dissolved the civilian cabinet and halted the transition to democracy.

Last December, Sudan's military and pro-democracy leaders signed a deal paving the way to democratic elections, but the agreement has been delayed by the escalating tensions.

Read more:
Civilians reportedly killed during heavy fighting
US ambassador forced to shelter as videos emerge of fighting

Current tensions between the army and the paramilitary stem from a disagreement over how the RSF should merge with the military - a process that is a key condition of the transition agreement.

The RSF and armed forces are headed up by al-Bashir's former allies. RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo headed up the tribal militias empowered by the government to carry out atrocities during the Darfur conflict that broke out 20 years ago.

The armed forces are headed up by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, al Bashir's former inspector general.

Both sides have been accused of violence against civilian pro-democracy protesters in the years that followed the 2019 revolution.