Why the Brexit process could still have many months to run
The Brexit process could easily run past the leave date of 29 March if MPs do not back the PM's deal, writes Sky's Mark Stone.
Monday 14 January 2019 18:32, UK
The much-anticipated letter from Brussels has been published.
As widely expected, it does not agree to any tinkering with the 585-page Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (the deal negotiated by Theresa May) and so the controversial "backstop" remains firmly in place as an insurance policy.
So some MPs will - no doubt - bin it immediately.
But as was also expected, the letter - penned jointly by the European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker - does offer five pages of explicit reassurances that no one on the EU side wants the backstop to be triggered - and if it is, it will only be temporary.
Both Brussels and Downing Street dearly hope that MPs, as they ponder which way to vote, will study the letter carefully and not dismiss it simply because it does not scrap the backstop.
The letter itself was part of a carefully choreographed operation involving officials on both sides of the Channel, who for some time have been working out the best way to offer the reassurance needed to get Mrs May's deal over the line.
Senior officials on the EU side, who can't be named because they are not authorised to talk to the media, have made it clear that backroom chats have been ongoing for some time.
You can be sure that Olly Robbins, the prime minister's Europe adviser and the key figure in her plan to deliver Brexit, has been at the heart of the plans.
:: What could happen if PM's Brexit deal is rejected
He and his EU counterparts in the European Council and European Commission pondered what the best way to deliver the reassurance would be.
Initially, an annex to the European Council conclusions reached in December was a possibility, an exchange of letters was another, and a verbal statement by Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk or both was yet another.
In the end, the letter exchange was chosen - and the timing was key, too.
Releasing the letter on the eve of the vote removes the possibility for it to be picked apart too much. The reassurances, for what they are worth, are fresh in MPs minds as they cast their votes.
Now, to the content of the letter.
For those MPs who do read beyond the line, which states that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be renegotiated and the backstop will not be removed, there is some significant stuff in it.
The letter states that:
:: The EU will work as fast as possible to get a new trade deal. The backstop is very undesirable in the EU too. They do not want it. There is an implicit reminder that it was the UK and not the EU which proposed the all-UK backstop.
:: It makes clear that any new laws introduced by the EU during backstop (if it were to be introduced) can be vetoed by the UK - so they would not apply to the UK. The Northern Irish government can also have say on this and it could reduce the fear that the UK is a vassal state.
:: As part of its pledge to put in place the backstop-avoiding trade deal, the EU has said that if the deal is delayed by national ratification in member states (remember how the Belgian Walloon regional government held up the EU-Canada trade deal), the EU Commission will apply the deal provisionally - so the UK would not fall into the backstop while waiting for regional governments to approve the deal.
:: Both the Withdrawal Agreement and the political declaration will be published in the EU's official journal. That gives them both some combined legal weight.
The letter will surely narrow the margin in terms of how many MPs are willing to support the deal. But the suggestion is that it will not go far enough.
So what then? Could the EU move further?
Maybe. Obviously Brussels would not offer huge concessions until the vote has actually happened, but there is a longer game at play here.
Behind the scenes, both sides are talking far more than is immediately obvious.
If Mrs May's deal does not go through this week then there will almost certainly need to be an extension to Article 50 because the UK parliamentary timetable will not allow for any subsequently agreed deal to be ratified by 29 March.
If Article 50 is extended (and every EU member must agree to any extension), then the new deadline would become July because that is when the new European parliament term begins.
Could it even go beyond that? Yes - but only if agreed well before the May European parliament elections.
Why? Because the UK would need to field MEPs if the UK was an EU member in the new parliamentary term, which would complicate matters significantly (although a reserve budget has been ring-fenced for such a scenario).
So unless enough MPs buy the EU'S letter-written reassurances, this process could run for a few more months at least.
:: Follow and watch the Brexit vote live with a special programme on Sky News from 6-10pm on Tuesday evening