Would a new prime minister make a difference?
A new prime minister, of any Brexit persuasion, would be free to start anew, with the number of options open to them far greater.
Tuesday 26 March 2019 08:11, UK
On Sunday afternoon the grey suits finally came out of the wardrobe.
Or in Boris Johnson's case, predictably, a scruffy coat and jumper and for Jacob Rees-Mogg, the all too familiar pinstripes. At Chequers, the traditional safe haven for British leaders, 13 men - and yes they were all men - told Britain's second female prime minister the game was up.
Theresa May's assembled collection of ministers past and present insisted that she name the date of her departure. In exchange, they said, they might vote for her deal, allow it to pass and thereby give Brexiteers control over the next round of negotiations.
Let's leave aside for a moment whether or not this latest chicanery will work (and the oddity that these senior MPs say Mrs May's deal is abominable and unconscionable but will vote for it in exchange for her head) and consider whether her removal could actually open new possibilities.
In one sense, it will be a welcome relief for many Conservatives. The story of Mrs May's premiership is one of a prime minister slowly building a prison around herself. She has trapped herself into a tighter and tighter space, making promises and undertakings from which she could not resile, trapped by the remorseless logic of her own red lines.
A new prime minister, of any Brexit persuasion, would at least rhetorically be free to start afresh; the number of options open to them far greater, the weight of their own acts would not nearly be so heavy. Perhaps relations with other parties might be better and goodwill from their own side greater. In tough negotiations and tight votes, this could make the difference.
The boat the government is in can't ride these rapids, it's far too battered. They need to find a new model, not just change the captain.
But the fundamentals would not change whoever inherits May's crown. The parliamentary arithmetic would not alter; the withdrawal agreement would not shift, at least for the short term. Moreover, while a new prime minister would not be so dug in, the positions of his or her opponents in other parties and their own would be as entrenched as Mrs May's. The rapids a new prime minister must navigate would essentially be the same.
A Jacob Rees-Mogg or Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, advocating no-deal Brexit, would still find a parliament implacably opposed to such a plan and would prevent it; a Remainer favouring a soft Brexit- a David Lidington or Amber Rudd, perhaps tempted by the Norway option or customs union, would find half of their party willing to split to head it off; a middle of the roader; a Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid, would find themselves in much the same position as May, attempting to split the difference. Michael Gove is less easy to pigeonhole but is distrusted by most.
The fundamentals must change; the boat the government is in can't ride these rapids, it's far too battered. They need to find a new model, not just change the captain. And this is where, a different prime minister might come in handy. Tories disagree about much but agree about something: that Theresa May cannot lead them into another general election.
A new leader with fresh appeal to the voters might allow them to risk another snap poll, which really is the only answer to their woes: a long-term and sustainable majority not only for this Brexit deal (or some variant of it) but the future relationship deal, the talks about which have not even begun.
A referendum of some kind is also a possibility, something it is impossible to imagine Mrs May endorsing; but a more nimble or agile prime minister could. The problem at the centre of all our woes is that there is democratic legitimacy for leaving but there is none for how we leave. Leavers might grumble that there is, that the referendum of 2016 is the only mandate you need.
But parliament disagrees and given Leavers did not provide a unified and coherent model for leaving during the referendum, that is much their own fault. The 2017 election, producing a hung parliament with no obvious endorsement from the people muddied the waters further.
The system desperately needs an injection of democracy, an electoral event of some kind. It's the only thing which will force politicians to put their own preferences aside and unblock the system. It's the only thing which will confer legitimacy for a new settlement which endures. Theresa May appears to be the barrier to that and that's where a new PM might change everything.
Brexit itself is a symptom of Tory underperformance in general elections. They haven't won a decent majority since 1987. For 30 years, Tory prime ministers have been beholden to their eurosceptic rump. This botched Brexit is a symptom of the biggest Tory underperformance yet - 2017 and the minority government which followed. If you're a Conservative, the only way to stop the rot and satiate the civil war is for the party to actually start winning again.