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Boris Johnson doesn't have the numbers - yet - to pass his deal in the Commons, but there have been clear signs that some of the resistance is crumbling.

The best estimates suggest Saturday's vote couldn't be tighter.

The prime minister needs about 320 votes assuming no one abstains, but there are only 287 voting Conservative MPs.

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2:39

Boris Johnson's position on Brexit made clear to MPs: 'New deal or no-deal, but no delay'

So far, no Brexiteer has declared they are going to vote against it, although there may yet be one or two, so the Tory tally is currently a clean sweep.

Nevertheless, how does he close that gap even without the 10 votes from the DUP, who emphatically rejected Mr Johnson's Brexit plan?

Whether Mr Johnson wins depends on the backbone of rebels on both sides to defy inducements and threats from their leaderships.

In order to get it through the Commons, the PM needs votes from three groups - 20 former Tory rebels who lost the whip but haven't yet defected, 19 sitting Labour MPs who have previously indicated they might back the right sort of Brexit deal, and a handful of former Labour MPs sitting as independents.

Has Boris Johnson got a deal - or more delay?

Sky's Adam Parson's analysis the summit in Brussels

The most important group for Mr Johnson are the former Tory rebels, since they are the most susceptible to being squeezed.

There were some suggestions there might be as many as 12 holdouts. Other estimates on Thursday morning put it at eight.

But after the deal was announced, this number started to slide throughout the afternoon.

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2:04

The change in mood was put down to several wanting to "go with the flow", and the lack of substantive rebellion from the European Research Group, who appear to be failing to follow the DUP in large numbers.

Out of the 21 former Tory rebels, excluding Sam Gymiah but including Amber Rudd, it looks like just three or four - including Justine Greening, Guto Bebb and Dominic Grieve - are likely to vote against the government's deal.

This means perhaps 17 votes, taking the total to 304.

Then there are handful of ex-Tory independents who will vote for it, including Nick Boles and Charlie Elphicke, taking Mr Johnson to 306.

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After this point, things get less certain.

There are ex-Labour independents, most of whom have little loyalty to Mr Corbyn, and appear likely to back the deal: Ian Austin, John Woodcock, Kelvin Hopkins and Frank Field are believed to be close to backing a deal, taking him to a theoretical 310.

Beth Rigby's analysis

PM faces threat of deal being scuppered within next 48 hours

So are there 10 Labour MPs that might back him?

Maybe. The first three confirmed deal backers yesterday were John Mann, Jim Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Campbell, taking Mr Johnson to 313.

So then there is a pool who could be in play - including Kevin Barron, Rosie Cooper and Caroline Flint - who voted for Theresa May's deals in the past, which could leave the PM tantalisingly close to the finish line with 316 votes.

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2:18

Does the PM have the numbers?

Johnson tantalisingly close to 320 target, analysis suggests

There are known unknowns - just how many other Labour MPs in Leave seats who could abstain, making the target number of votes needed by Mr Johnson lower than 320.

Then there are the unknown unknowns.

Over the next 36 hours, the pressure from Number 10 - politically and financially - will be immense. It could not be closer to the wire.