COVID-19: R number 'below one' in parts of England, study suggests
Government scientists released their own figures today for the UK, showing the R number remains steady at between 1.2 and 1.3.
Friday 15 January 2021 15:21, UK
The R number for the coronavirus in England is below one in some areas, according to research from the University of Cambridge.
It suggests the reproductive rate is falling as a whole across the country "but with a high degree of regional variation".
It comes amid a warning that infection numbers remain "still worryingly high and hospitals will stay under pressure for some time yet".
Scientists at the Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 working group, who carried out the study, said the current estimate for daily new infections is 60,200.
Government scientists released their own figures today, showing the R number remains steady at between 1.2 and 1.3.
Last week, SAGE estimates put the range for the R number for the UK as a whole as 1-1.4.
The R number tells us how many other people someone with the virus is likely to infect - anything above one means the number of new cases will grow.
MRC researchers suggest the areas which have an R value below one include the East of England, London, the South East, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.
They said the reproductive rate is above 1 in the South West, North West, North East and East Midlands.
The team said: "The growth rate for England is now estimated to be -0.02 per day. This means that, nationally, the number of infections is declining but with a high degree of regional variation.
"Infections are still increasing in the South West and North East, whilst plateauing in the West Midlands and East Midlands."
The study also looked into the proportion of people in the regions who have had the virus across the pandemic.
It suggested 30% of people have had it in London, 26% in the North West and 21% in the North East, 13% in the South East and 8% in the South West.
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Meanwhile, a team at the Zoe COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey from King's College London put the UK R rate at 0.9.
Tim Spector, who is leading the study, said: "It's great to see case numbers falling in most regions but numbers are still worryingly high and hospitals will stay under pressure for some time yet.
"With such high numbers and growing evidence new strains are highly transmissible, things can still take a turn for the worse. We need numbers to keep falling before we make any changes to current restrictions."