COVID-19: UK's R number estimated at between 1.2 and 1.3
The number has gone down slightly in London, the South East and South West, as well as the North East and Yorkshire.
Friday 15 January 2021 16:10, UK
The coronavirus R number in the UK has remained largely unchanged, as SAGE estimate it is now between 1.2 and 1.3.
Last week it was estimated that the R number was 1 to 1.4.
The number has gone down slightly in London, the South East and South West, as well as the North East and Yorkshire.
But it has risen slightly in the East of England, Midlands and North West.
The growth rate is now estimated to be between +2% and +5% - last week, this was between 0% and +6%.
R - or the reproduction number - indicates how quickly COVID-19 is spreading, with regional variations of the R number indicating where the virus is spreading fastest.
These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions:
- England - 1.1-1.3 and +1 to +4
- East of England - 1.0-1.3 and 0 to +4
- London 0.9-1.2 and -2 to +3
- Midlands 1.2-1.4 and +2 to +6
- North East and Yorkshire - 1.1-1.3 and +2 to +5
- North West - 1.2-1.5 and +3 to +7
- South East 1.0-1.2 and -1 to +3
- South West 1.2-1.5 and +4 to +7
The update comes after research from the University of Cambridge suggested the R number in England was below 1 in some areas.
It suggested the reproductive rate was falling as a whole across the country "but with a high degree of regional variation".
Experts advising the government said the ranges for the growth rates and R number have narrowed for the UK, England and most regions, which reflects greater certainty around the estimates.
They said the estimates are based on the latest data, available up to 11 January.
SAGE said: "The latest figures show that we need to remain vigilant to keep this virus under control, to protect the NHS and save lives.
"We all need to play our part, and if everyone continues to follow the rules, we can expect to drive down the R number across the country."
This week's estimates, regarded as reliable by SAGE, suggest the R number remains high in the Midlands - which was between 1.1 and 1.4 last week, while falling slightly in London, which also recorded an R number between 1.1 and 1.4.
The estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms, and needing healthcare.
Kevin McConway, an emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University, told Sky News the interesting thing about this week's R number compared to last week's is "the range has narrowed a huge amount".
But he added the R number is "not regionally consistent".
"The R number is based to some extent on data that is not in line completely with the current level of infections. That's because they use data on hospital admissions and sadly on deaths," he added.
Ahead of this week's R number announcement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the public to "think twice before leaving the house this weekend" in a video posted to Twitter, adding that we will win the fight against coronavirus "jab by jab".
Analysis: Regional R number changes proving interesting
By Adele Robinson, news correspondent
The regional variation of the R number and growth rate is particularly interesting.
The South West and the North West have the highest estimated R number of between 1.2 and 1.5.
It means on average every 10 people infected will go on to infect between 12 and 15 other people.
The growth rate for those two regions is also the highest in England.
In the South West, the number of infections is estimated to be growing by between 4% and 7% every day, and in the North West between 3% and 7%.
In London, the R number has dropped to between 0.9 and 1.2 compared to last week's estimate of between 1.1 and 1.4.