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Hostilities worsen despite attempts to broker a ceasefire. 

What happens next requires difficult decisions and hard choices.  

Russia knows our weaknesses. But do you? 

A major five-part series from Sky News and Tortoise which imagines how a Russian attack on the UK could play out 鈥� and invites real-life former ministers, military chiefs and other experts to figure out how to defend the country. 

Written and presented by Sky News' security and defence editor, Deborah Haynes. 

Sir Keir Starmer has been catching up with fellow world leaders at the NATO summit in The Hague this evening.

It's the start of a two-day summit, where allies will commit to boosting defence and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Downing Street has provided a few details of meetings the prime minister has already had with his Dutch counterpart, as well as the German chancellor and French president.

With Dutch PM Dick Schoof, Starmer talked about the need for "diplomacy" in the Middle East, and their joint desire to keep backing Ukraine against Russian aggression.

He also reflected on those two conflicts with Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron, and the possibility of imposing more sanctions on Moscow was discussed.

They also spoke about Gaza. Starmer repeated that the situation was "intolerable", and said all sides must work towards a ceasefire.

Speaking to Sky's Mark Austin, Ukraine's Volodymyr ZelenAG百家乐在线官网y has warned many British goods are still ending up in Russia despite tough sanctions designed to stop it from happening.

So, what's going on? 

Our economics and data editor Ed Conway has drilled deeper into the numbers - and has identified a trend that explains all.

At least 125 Labour MPs have signed up to a "reasoned amendment" that could tank the government's welfare reform bill - and one of those is Stella Creasy, who is on Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge.

She insists that defeating the bill is not "the conversation we're having right now", but they want to "raise alternative ways" of reforming the welfare system with ministers - including tax allowance thresholds.

But she says the rebels are "now at a point where we feel this [amendment] is the way forward".

'De-escalation is an important principle'

The aim of the amendment is to get more information about the changes and their impact, she says.

Asked if Downing Street has engaged with the rebels, Creasy replies: "People have had meetings. But what we're now saying is actually we're still concerned. We are concerned this will not reduce the welfare bill, this will push more people into poverty. And there are better ways that we can secure the changes we want to do."

She backs Sir Keir Starmer's assertion that this is not a confidence vote in the government, saying: "De-escalation is an important principle around the world right now. What matters is getting the policy right.

"What you are seeing is a very clear message that we don't think we're there yet."

At least 125 Labour MPs have signed on to a "reasoned amendment" that, if passed, would kill the government's legislation to slash disability benefits, and the London mayor, Sir Sadiq Khan, has called on ministers to think again.

Sky's Sophy Ridge asks minister Dan Jarvis if he agrees these cuts are the wrong thing to do, and he replies: "I completely understand the strength of feeling about this particular issue.

"What I would say is that there are a number of very positive measures in this bill."

Watch: PM's welfare rebellion explained

He points to spending on support for people to get back into work as a key example, adding: "If we can't get this legislation through next week, that will fall."

Pushed on if he supports the bill, the minister says it is "completely unsustainable" that there are 1,000 people per day qualifying for PIP payments.

"Our country won't be successful if we allow people to remain on benefits for protracted periods of time," he argues.

"We've got to reform the arrangements. And contained within this bill are a number of very positive measures."

The first guest on tonight's edition of Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is the security minister, Dan Jarvis, in the wake of the publication of the government's National Security Strategy (NSS) which warns the UK has to "actively prepare" for the potential of a "wartime scenario".

Jarvis says: "The key message is the world is a very difficult and challenging place, but as a government we are getting organised, we're marshalling our resources."

Challenged on the fact that the government has suddenly agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence - a pretty steep hike in spending - the minister says it also includes national security, not just military defence (things like cyber defences, for example).

On the substance of the NSS, Sophy asks what exactly preparing for a "wartime scenario" means.

Jarvis says there is a "wide spectrum of different threats" facing the UK, such as cyber, and also making sure the public is "aware and not alarmed" of the various threats.

'Malign actors' targeting UK

Pushed for an example, the minister said: "Look at the attack that's taking place on Marks and Spencer, and on a range of other UK based entities."

Sophy says to him: "A wartime scenario is not a cyberattack on Marks and Spencer, is it?"

He replies: "Well, we're talking about hostile activity from a range of malign actors, which includes a hostile state threat that we know that we have to work very hard to guard against."

The minister also points to the 20 plots from Iran on UK soil disrupted by security services.

The aim is to ensure that government, the police, the armed forces, and intelligence services are "properly geared" and ready to respond to the range of threats they have identified."

We've just been hearing from our political editor Beth Rigby, who is with the prime minister at the NATO summit in The Hague, about his welfare versus warfare dilemma.

Beth says: "What you have here is a prime minister here at NATO with a national security review warning of potential threats to the UK, a prime minister saying his first duty is the defence and security of my people, and saying simply he has to increase defence spending."

The pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035 would add around 拢30bn to the government's current spending commitment, she explains.

"It is a huge amount of money. They haven't said yet how they will fund that, but what you're clearly seeing is a prime minister who has to make choices about where to spend money."

The other competing element is welfare, which European states have spent more on at the cost of defence after the Cold War ended.

Beth says: "We're at a tipping point here, with the prime minister clearly saying he has to put the money into warfare, into defence - it's not particularly popular with voters who would prefer more spending on public services.

"The problem he's got in the short term is the welfare legislation cuts 拢5bn from the overall bill, hitting PIP payments, with his MPs in full-blown rebellion."

Starmer in a horrible position

That, she explains, is why she asked if the vote on the welfare reforms is effectively a confidence vote, because "how humiliating would it be if, but a year into being prime minister with a landslide majority, [he] was defeated on a flagship policy".

"It is a horrible position for him to be in," Beth says, which is why he told her it is not a confidence vote, and he will press on, because "what option does the government have".

"People today are telling me that financially they can't back down because they need to find the savings, and politically, they cannot back down because it looks weak."

The only option is to whittle down the rebellion - but that has only grown today.

"He is a prime minister is a really difficult position in the next few days in this welfare versus warfare debate."

It feels right now that the world is either at war or on the brink.

Russia-Ukraine, - Israel-Iran - the geopolitical situation couldn't be more serious, the diplomacy couldn't be more important.

And yet, we are also living through unprecedented times for a very different reason.

Because all those conversations that usually would happen behind closed doors - on the sidelines of summits, or in smoke filled rooms - they're all being played out in the open, thanks to Donald Trump.

It's like living through a real life movie - or a behind the scenes documentary. This is what he said this morning - about Israel and Iran:

You can feel his anger there. We're so used to it - but it's still absolutely extraordinary - the president of the United States has just said that the leaders of Israel and Iran don't know what the f*** they're doing.

Just compare that to Keir Starmer, who is still talking the diplomatic language we're used to - which basically means not saying very much at all:

And just in case you needed more convincing about Donald Trump breaking all the diplomatic rules, he appears to have posted a private message from the head of NATO Mark Rutte on social media.

It doesn't read like a message designed for publication. Right now, Donald Trump is not just ripping up the rule book but eviscerating it.

Will this full transparency yield better results than the old diplomatic dance? We'll have to see.

Our flagship weeknight politics programme is under way.

Joining us tonight is security minister Dan Jarvis MP.

On our panel are Stella Creasy MP, who is among the Labour rebels opposing the PM's welfare reforms, and ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Watch live in the stream at the top of this page.

The Labour Party has just responded to Kemi Badenoch's conditional offer of support for the government's bill to cut disability benefits.

In case you missed it, the Tory leader said her party will vote in favour of the government's bill if Sir Keir Starmer stands up at the despatch box in the Commons to announce a commitment to bring the benefits bill down further, to "get people back into work" with a new package of measures, and to no tax rises in the autumn (see previous post for more).

In response, a Labour spokesperson said: "This Labour government was elected to deliver change, and we're prepared to take on the challenges holding the UK back.

"We're fixing the abysmal mess the Tories left behind, and MPs can either vote to keep a broken, failed welfare system that writes people off, or they can vote to start fixing it.

"Next week's bill is a test for the leader of the opposition as to whether her party has learned anything at all by being roundly rejected by Britain."