Russia 'giving Americans the run-around' in talks
Probably, but it depends on the terms of the deal, says Michael Clarke.
"The Russians are quite keen to do this because they want to get their stuff out," he says.
"At the moment, they can't get their stuff out of the Black Sea, because of the threat that the Ukrainians could pose to their ships."
There are two issues now on the table in talks, Clarke says.
These are:
- energy facilities not being targeted;
- resurrecting the Black Sea deal.
They are both more to Russia's benefit than Ukraine's, Clarke says.
"It is a very, very limited ceasefire - which gets more limited every day - of the two elements that the Russians most want," he says.
"Because they're the two elements that actually benefit them more than they benefit the Ukrainians."
And with the US going for quick negotiations, in contrast to Russia's "running-the-clock-down" approach, Clarke says it looks like Moscow is "giving the American team a complete run-around".
"They're giving them a lesson in tough diplomacy, and there are none tougher than the Russians when it comes to negotiating something on the Black Sea," Clarke adds.
And don't overlook Turkey's role in this, he says, as they control the waterway connecting the Black Sea to the rest of the world.
What is this Black Sea deal?
Moscow is said to be keen to revive a UN-backed deal that allows Ukraine to export grain from its ports without being attacked, known as the Black Sea grain initiative.
The deal was negotiated in July 2022 between Turkey, the UN and Russia as a way of ensuring that Ukraine, one of the breadbaskets of the world, could keep exporting grain from its southern ports.
The deal also allowed for greater Russian agricultural exports, but Moscow pulled out of the initiative in July 2023 after accusing the West of reneging on this part of the agreement.
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